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We present improved estimates of air–sea CO₂exchange over three latitude bands of the Southern Ocean using atmospheric CO₂measurements from global airborne campaigns and an atmospheric 4-box inverse model based on a mass-indexed isentropic coordinate (M_θe). These flux estimates show two features not clearly resolved in previous estimates based on inverting surface CO₂measurements: a weak winter-time outgassing in the polar region and a sharp phase transition of the seasonal flux cycles between polar/subpolar and subtropical regions. The estimates suggest much stronger summer-time uptake in the polar/subpolar regions than estimates derived through neural-network interpolation of pCO₂data obtained with profiling floats but somewhat weaker uptake than a recent study by Long et al. [Science374, 1275–1280 (2021)], who used the same airborne data and multiple atmospheric transport models (ATMs) to constrain surface fluxes. Our study also uses moist static energy (MSE) budgets from reanalyses to show that most ATMs tend to have excessive diabatic mixing (transport across moist isentrope, θ_e, or M_θesurfaces) at high southern latitudes in the austral summer, which leads to biases in estimates of air–sea CO₂exchange. Furthermore, we show that the MSE-based constraint is consistent with an independent constraint on atmospheric mixing based on combining airborne and surface CO₂observations. 

Abstract Seasonal change of atmospheric potential oxygen (APO ∼ O₂ + CO₂) is a tracer for air‐sea O₂flux with little sensitivity to the terrestrial exchange of O₂and CO₂. In this study, we present the tropospheric distribution and inventory of APO in each hemisphere with seasonal resolution, using O₂and CO₂measurements from discrete airborne campaigns between 2009 and 2018. The airborne data are represented on a mass‐weighted isentropic coordinate (M_θe) as an alternative to latitude, which reduces the noise from synoptic variability in the APO cycles. We find a larger seasonal amplitude of APO inventory in the Southern Hemisphere relative to the Northern Hemisphere, and a larger amplitude in high latitudes (lowM_θe) relative to low latitudes (highM_θe) within each hemisphere. With a box model, we invert the seasonal changes in APO inventory to yield estimates of air‐sea flux cycles at the hemispheric scale. We found a larger seasonal net outgassing of APO in the Southern Hemisphere (518 ± 52.6 Tmol) than in the Northern Hemisphere (342 ± 52.1 Tmol). Differences in APO phasing and amplitude between the hemispheres suggest distinct physical and biogeochemical mechanisms driving the air‐sea O₂fluxes, such as fall outgassing of photosynthetic O₂in the Northern Hemisphere, possibly associated with the formation of the seasonal subsurface shallow oxygen maximum. We compare our estimates with four model‐ and observation‐based products, identifying key limitations in these products or in the tools used to create them. 

Abstract The interannual to decadal variability in natural carbon sinks limits the explanation of recent changes in atmospheric CO₂concentration. Here we account for interannual and decadal variability using a simple quasi-mechanistic model of the net land carbon exchange with terms scaling with atmospheric CO₂and a weighted spatial average of temperature anomalies. This approach reduces the unexplained residual in Earth’s carbon cycle budget from ±0.76 GtC per year obtained using process models to ±0.50 GtC per year, with the largest improvements on decadal timescales despite assuming constant dynamics. Our findings reveal remarkable stability of the carbon cycle and allow verification of reported global emissions to within 4.4% (95% confidence level) over the five-year stocktake cycle of the Paris Agreement—half the uncertainty reported previously. 

Abstract The Arctic–Boreal Zone is rapidly warming, impacting its large soil carbon stocks. Here we use a new compilation of terrestrial ecosystem CO₂fluxes, geospatial datasets and random forest models to show that although the Arctic–Boreal Zone was overall an increasing terrestrial CO₂sink from 2001 to 2020 (mean ± standard deviation in net ecosystem exchange, −548 ± 140 Tg C yr⁻¹; trend, −14 Tg C yr⁻¹;P < 0.001), more than 30% of the region was a net CO₂source. Tundra regions may have already started to function on average as CO₂sources, demonstrating a shift in carbon dynamics. When fire emissions are factored in, the increasing Arctic–Boreal Zone sink is no longer statistically significant (budget, −319 ± 140 Tg C yr⁻¹; trend, −9 Tg C yr⁻¹), and the permafrost region becomes CO₂neutral (budget, −24 ± 123 Tg C yr⁻¹; trend, −3 Tg C yr⁻¹), underscoring the importance of fire in this region. 

Abstract. This study considersyear-to-year and decadal variations in as well as secular trendsof the sea–air CO2 flux over the 1957–2020 period,as constrained by the pCO2 measurements from the SOCATv2021 database.In a first step,we relate interannual anomalies in ocean-internal carbon sources and sinksto local interannual anomalies insea surface temperature (SST), the temporal changes in SST (dSST/dt),and squared wind speed (u2),employing a multi-linear regression.In the tropical Pacific, we find interannual variability to be dominated by dSST/dt,as arising from variations in the upwelling of colder and more carbon-rich waters into the mixed layer.In the eastern upwelling zones as well as in circumpolar bands in the high latitudes of both hemispheres,we find sensitivity to wind speed,compatible with the entrainment of carbon-rich water during wind-driven deepening of the mixed layerand wind-driven upwelling.In the Southern Ocean,the secular increase in wind speed leads to a secular increase in the carbon source into the mixed layer,with an estimated reduction in the sink trend in the range of 17 % to 42 %.In a second step,we combined the result of the multi-linear regression andan explicitly interannual pCO2-based additive correctioninto a “hybrid” estimate of the sea–air CO2 flux over the period 1957–2020.As a pCO2 mapping method,it combines (a) the ability of a regression to bridge data gaps and extrapolate intothe early decades almost void of pCO2 databased on process-related observablesand (b) the ability of an auto-regressive interpolation to follow signalseven if not represented in the chosen set of explanatory variables.The “hybrid” estimate can be applied as an ocean flux prior foratmospheric CO2 inversions covering the whole period of atmospheric CO2 data since 1957. 

Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize datasets and methodologies to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC) are based on land-use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly, and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The global net uptake of CO2 by the ocean (SOCEAN, called the ocean sink) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based fCO2 products (fCO2 is the fugacity of CO2). The global net uptake of CO2 by the land (SLAND, called the land sink) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. Additional lines of evidence on land and ocean sinks are provided by atmospheric inversions, atmospheric oxygen measurements, and Earth system models. The sum of all sources and sinks results in the carbon budget imbalance (BIM), a measure of imperfect data and incomplete understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the year 2023, EFOS increased by 1.3 % relative to 2022, with fossil emissions at 10.1 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 (10.3 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 when the cement carbonation sink is not included), and ELUC was 1.0 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, for a total anthropogenic CO2 emission (including the cement carbonation sink) of 11.1 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1 (40.6 ± 3.2 GtCO2 yr−1). Also, for 2023, GATM was 5.9 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1 (2.79 ± 0.1 ppm yr−1; ppm denotes parts per million), SOCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.4 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 2.3 ± 1.0 GtC yr−1, with a near-zero BIM (−0.02 GtC yr−1). The global atmospheric CO2 concentration averaged over 2023 reached 419.31 ± 0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2024 suggest an increase in EFOS relative to 2023 of +0.8 % (−0.2 % to 1.7 %) globally and an atmospheric CO2 concentration increase by 2.87 ppm, reaching 422.45 ppm, 52 % above the pre-industrial level (around 278 ppm in 1750). Overall, the mean of and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2023, with a near-zero overall budget imbalance, although discrepancies of up to around 1 GtC yr−1 persist for the representation of annual to semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows the following: (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use change emissions, (2) low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the mean ocean sink. This living-data update documents changes in methods and datasets applied to this most recent global carbon budget as well as evolving community understanding of the global carbon cycle. The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2024 (Friedlingstein et al., 2024). 

The Southern Ocean plays an important role in determining atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), yet estimates of air-sea CO 2 flux for the region diverge widely. In this study, we constrained Southern Ocean air-sea CO 2 exchange by relating fluxes to horizontal and vertical CO 2 gradients in atmospheric transport models and applying atmospheric observations of these gradients to estimate fluxes. Aircraft-based measurements of the vertical atmospheric CO 2 gradient provide robust flux constraints. We found an annual mean flux of –0.53 ± 0.23 petagrams of carbon per year (net uptake) south of 45°S during the period 2009–2018. This is consistent with the mean of atmospheric inversion estimates and surface-ocean partial pressure of CO 2 ( P co 2 )–based products, but our data indicate stronger annual mean uptake than suggested by recent interpretations of profiling float observations. 

Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land-use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly, and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based fCO2 products. The terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. Additional lines of evidence on land and ocean sinks are provided by atmospheric inversions, atmospheric oxygen measurements, and Earth system models. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and incomplete understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the year 2022, EFOS increased by 0.9 % relative to 2021, with fossil emissions at 9.9±0.5 Gt C yr−1 (10.2±0.5 Gt C yr−1 when the cement carbonation sink is not included), and ELUC was 1.2±0.7 Gt C yr−1, for a total anthropogenic CO2 emission (including the cement carbonation sink) of 11.1±0.8 Gt C yr−1 (40.7±3.2 Gt CO2 yr−1). Also, for 2022, GATM was 4.6±0.2 Gt C yr−1 (2.18±0.1 ppm yr−1; ppm denotes parts per million), SOCEAN was 2.8±0.4 Gt C yr−1, and SLAND was 3.8±0.8 Gt C yr−1, with a BIM of −0.1 Gt C yr−1 (i.e. total estimated sources marginally too low or sinks marginally too high). The global atmospheric CO2 concentration averaged over 2022 reached 417.1±0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2023 suggest an increase in EFOS relative to 2022 of +1.1 % (0.0 % to 2.1 %) globally and atmospheric CO2 concentration reaching 419.3 ppm, 51 % above the pre-industrial level (around 278 ppm in 1750). Overall, the mean of and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2022, with a near-zero overall budget imbalance, although discrepancies of up to around 1 Gt C yr−1 persist for the representation of annual to semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows the following: (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use changes emissions, (2) a low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the strength of the ocean sink over the last decade. This living-data update documents changes in methods and data sets applied to this most recent global carbon budget as well as evolving community understanding of the global carbon cycle. The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2023 (Friedlingstein et al., 2023). 

Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions andtheir redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biospherein a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carboncycle, support the development of climate policies, and project futureclimate change. Here we describe and synthesize datasets and methodology toquantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and theiruncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energystatistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change(ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use changedata and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measureddirectly, and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annualchanges in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is estimatedwith global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-baseddata products. The terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated withdynamic global vegetation models. The resulting carbon budget imbalance(BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and theestimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is ameasure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carboncycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the firsttime, an approach is shown to reconcile the difference in our ELUCestimate with the one from national greenhouse gas inventories, supportingthe assessment of collective countries' climate progress. For the year 2020, EFOS declined by 5.4 % relative to 2019, withfossil emissions at 9.5 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 (9.3 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 when the cement carbonation sink is included), and ELUC was 0.9 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, for a total anthropogenic CO2 emission of10.2 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1 (37.4 ± 2.9 GtCO2). Also, for2020, GATM was 5.0 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1 (2.4 ± 0.1 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN was 3.0 ± 0.4 GtC yr−1, and SLANDwas 2.9 ± 1 GtC yr−1, with a BIM of −0.8 GtC yr−1. Theglobal atmospheric CO2 concentration averaged over 2020 reached 412.45 ± 0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2021 suggest a rebound in EFOSrelative to 2020 of +4.8 % (4.2 % to 5.4 %) globally. Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budgetare consistently estimated over the period 1959–2020, but discrepancies ofup to 1 GtC yr−1 persist for the representation of annual tosemi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates frommultiple approaches and observations shows (1) a persistent largeuncertainty in the estimate of land-use changes emissions, (2) a lowagreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the landCO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) a discrepancy betweenthe different methods on the strength of the ocean sink over the lastdecade. This living data update documents changes in the methods and datasets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understandingof the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this dataset (Friedlingstein et al., 2020, 2019; LeQuéré et al., 2018b, a, 2016, 2015b, a, 2014, 2013). Thedata presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/gcp-2021 (Friedlingstein et al., 2021).